| Abstrak/Abstract |
Proper knowledge of the nature of geomagnetic storms and their relationships with the conditions of the space environment at the outer part of the Earth’s magnetosphere (bow shock nose) is essential to increase our resilience to space weather disturbances. In this article, we present an analysis of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind parameters relevant to 100 geomagnetic storms in Solar Cycle 24. We revisit the relationship between the minimum disturbance storm time index (Dstmin), the minimum southward IMF (BS, min), the maximum solar wind density (NSW, max) and speed (Vmax), and the lag time between the extrema (dT(Bz, N), dT(Bz, V)). We end with a regression formula that fits the data, with a coefficient of determination of 0.58, a root mean square error of 21.30 nT, and a mean absolute error of 15.87 nT. Even though more complex machine learning models can outperform this model, it serves as a theoretically sensible alternative for understanding and forecasting geomagnetic storms. |
