| Abstrak/Abstract |
Major areas over global tropics are vulnerable to the effects of climate change,
particularly due to the high population and wide agricultural areas. The impacts of climate
change have been predicted to affect higher number of hydrometeorological disasters. Over
some areas, it is predicted to generate severe droughts and floods. In relation to the above
issue, software called 'Articulated Weather Generator for Seasonal Climate Prediction'
(AWGenSCP) has been developed to simulate the daily weather condition for the leading 6-8
months. This paper is intended to briefly explain the internal structure of the AWGenSCP
algorithms. Basically, the program is a statistical medium range prediction system which is
developed based on markov chain models. In addition to the general model, an articulation
scheme was developed and implemented in the systems by utilizing General Circulation Model
(GCM) output. This provides ability in simulating the following next seasonal condition,
particularly in term of precipitation and temperature. A sample validation of the model is
presented in the paper to show the model performance.
1. Introduction |
