Simulating Rainfall Seasonal Pattern in Kandangan Subregency Using Statistical Method
Penulis/Author
Dr. Emilya Nurjani, S.Si., M.Si. (1); LUKMAN HAKIM (2); Nur Medisyanning Khoiruluswati (4)
Tanggal/Date
2018
Kata Kunci/Keyword
Abstrak/Abstract
Rainfall is an important climate element which affects water resources availability in
a certain area. Water resources availability itself are an important factor for human life. In this
research, daily rainfall from 2014 to 2016 was statistically analyzed to obtain form and scale
parameter for 2-parameter gamma distribution for each month. Then obtained parameter is
clustered based on seasons resulting in four clusters. Then each obtained parameter within each
cluster is modeled as dependent variable using simple linear regression with Sea Surface
Temperature Anomaly over Nino 3,4 Zone as its independent variable. Those processes
resulted in the regression model for each gamma distribution parameter and for each season.
Then obtained model used and combined with random seed algorithm to simulate rainfall
during 2017. Resulted rainfall showed that statistical model that had been built was capable to
simulate the temporal pattern of rainfall although with underestimated rainfall value.
