| Abstrak/Abstract |
Despite the establishment of a national protected area system at the beginning of the 20th century to protect some of the world's most biodiverse forests, Indonesia has one of the highest deforestation rates in the world, due in part to the expansion of the global palm oil industry. The unique ecosystems of Sumatra, Indonesia provide habitat for critically endangered Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae), Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatrensis
), and two species of orangutans (Pongo abelii and Pongo tapanuliensis ). In this study, we use a matching method with generalized boosted models to determine the effectiveness of three nationally protected areas in preventing deforestation from 2002 to 2016. We also examine leakage–an increase in deforestation directly outside of protected areas relative to the wider landscape – to provide a clearer picture of the effects of agricultural expansion in this landscape. We found that Tesso Nilo National Park, with its lowland rain forest and conditions suitable for oil palm, off ered the least protection from deforestation (avoided deforestation
rate = 4.18%, p< 0.05 95% CI [1.97% - 6.45%]). Bukit Tigapuluh National Park, which may experience some de facto protection (i.e. protection due to factors independent of policy) with its mountainous terrain and dif-ficult access, had the highest avoided deforestation rate (26.36%,p< 0.05 95% CI [24.17–28.55]), but had relatively high leakage (10.21%, p
< 0.05 95% CI [7.51–12.98]). The low avoided deforestation rate in Tesso Nilo could be due to high localized human population and/or other socio-economic factors we were unable to
control for in this study. The quantitative evidence of deforestation and effectiveness of protected areas in this heavily modified landscape supports the need for increased enforcement around protected areas locally, and globally in other oil palm production regions. These actions are critical in the preservation of global, tropical endemic flora and fauna |
