| Penulis/Author |
dr. Riris Andono Ahmad, MPH, Ph.D (1); Dr. rer. silv. Muhammad Ali Imron, S.Hut., M.Sc. (2) ; Aditya Lia Ramadona, Ph.D. (3); NURUL LATHIFAH (4); FARADHINA AZZAHRA (5); Kirana Widyastuti (6); Anis Fuad, S.Ked., DEA. (7) |
| Abstrak/Abstract |
Introduction: Coronavirus transmission is strongly influenced by human mobilities
and interactions within and between different geographical regions. Human mobility
within and between cities is motivated by several factors, including employment,
cultural-driven, holidays, and daily routines.
Method: We developed a sustained metapopulation (SAMPAN) model, an agent-
based model (ABM) for simulating the effect of individual mobility and interaction
behavior on the spreading of COVID-19 viruses across main cities on Java Island,
Indonesia. The model considers social classes and social mixing affecting the
mobility and interaction behavior within a sub-population of a city in the early
pandemic. Travelers’ behavior represents the mobility among cities from central cities
to other cities and commuting behavior from the surrounding area of each city.
Results: Local sensitivity analysis using one factor at a time was performed to test
the SAMPAN model, and we have identified critical parameters for the model. While
validation was carried out for the Jakarta area, we are confident in implementing the
model for a larger area with the concept of metapopulation dynamics. We included
the area of Bogor, Depok, Bekasi, Bandung, Semarang, Surakarta, Yogyakarta,
Surabaya, and Malang cities which have important roles in the COVID-19 pandemic
spreading on this island.
Discussion: Our SAMPAN model can simulate various waves during the first year
of the pandemic caused by various phenomena of large social mobilities and
interactions, particularly during religious occasions and long holidays.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2022.958651/full |
