| Abstrak/Abstract |
Integrating uncertainties associated with photovoltaic (PV) generation is an important aspect used to ensure the
planning and operation of power distribution systems. Therefore, this research proposed an uncertainty model
for PV generation by combining the methods of change point detection, cyclic k-means clustering (KMC), Monte
Carlo simulation (MCS) with freedman diaconis estimator (FDE), and KMC with soft-dynamic time warping
(DTW). Firstly, a seasonal split was performed using change point detection techniques and cyclic KMC to identify
shifts in global horizontal irradiance (GHI) points. Secondly, the uncertainty of the GHI was generated using
MCS for each season and the FDE method to optimize the number of bins of the data distribution. Finally, the
PV generation curve from MCS was simplified through KMC with the soft-DTW metric, which facilitated a more
straightforward representation of a PV profile. The impact of PV profile integration on quasi-dynamic power flow
was tested on an IEEE 33 Bus system. The voltage profile on the feeder significantly impacted the PV integration,
specifically during hours when high PV power is produced. For instance, at 11:00 a.m., voltage values on buses
18, 17, and 33 increased from 0.933, 0.934, and 0.935, respectively, to 0.982, 0.980, and 0.972. Similarly,
with the value of power losses, the greater the PV power profile produced at a certain hour, the smaller the
losses generated. The experimental results of the uncertainties PV model proposed in this research indicated that
changes in electrical parameters change over time according to the input PV power profile produced. |
