| Abstrak/Abstract |
The drop of patchouli oil production in the beginning 2018 because many producers
in Gayo Lues have switched to other commodities when range of the (monthly) prices were too
often fluctuating below their expectations, lower than IDR. 500,000, due to increase in total
quantities supplied during 2017. This research is aimed to develop a stability model in order to
measure a recommended monthly range of stable prices offered by middlemen as local buyers
and quantity supplied by producers. The model was developed based on the cobweb model
theorem and by using statistical analysis of regression linear model to process prices and
quantities supplied data of the oil at equilibrium points. The research result indicates that most
producers sell their oils directly to middlemen. The middlemen adjusted prices monthly based
on amount of actual quantity supplied. While on the producers’ side, it is assumed that their
quantities supplied were influenced by their last observed prices. The result also shows that the
model can be used to measure the range of optimum prices and monthly quantities supplied,
which are between IDR 480,593 dan IDR 588,089 for the prices, and between 1,721.35 kg and
1,872.65 kg for the quantities supplied to the middlemen (samples) or between 3,431.95 kg and
3.733.61 kg for those to the local markets in Gayo Lues. These numbers can be used as
reference data for managing the monthly quantities supplied e.g. by establishing community
storage at producers level or finding new markets. |
