Graph modeling for verifying and validating reasonable flow quantity information: Evidence from Indonesia’s establishment of good governance in the upstream oil and gas sector
Penulis/Author
Indra Gunawan (1); Tutuka Ariadji (2); Prof. Ir. Budi Hartono, S.T., MPM, Ph.D., IPU., ASEAN Eng. (3); Prof. Dr. Eng. Ir. Deendarlianto, S.T., M.Eng. (4)
Tanggal/Date
2025
Kata Kunci/Keyword
Abstrak/Abstract
This paper proposes a novel method to verify and validate the complex flow quantity information problem raised
by state auditors and law enforcement. This problem relates to accountability in evaluating the integrity of
performance indicators and revenue data from the production operations and commercialization reports of
Indonesia’s oil and gas resources. A flow modeling technique was employed to analyze data from these reports
and relevant information systems. Time-series data analyses were performed to reveal the data archetype of the f low quantity imbalance behavior, that is, discrepancies. These discrepancies were analyzed under a stable
equilibrium hypothesis derived from the conserved quantity principle, which served as a truth reference. In this
study, an experiment was implemented on 143 multi-phase balance segments using an annual period of 365 daily oil and gas data produced from 11,462 wells in the Indonesian area. Archetype analyses showed that 82% of the segments were stationary data, 56% were centered around zero, and 50% of the models corresponded to flow system behavior. These findings suggest that the data archetypes tend to demonstrate stable equilibrium characteristics with adequate control instruments and increased data control. In turn, these archetypes provide quantitative acceptance criteria for detecting potential economic risks while segregating legal issues. These f indings reveal a contextual rationale and lay the groundwork for future research. A summary of cross-national comparisons is provided for the method’s universality. Furthermore, they provide strong evidence for the industrial sector to adopt and implement reasonable flow quantity information assurance in practice
