| Abstrak/Abstract |
For Muslims, the month of Ramadhan is a month of full ritual and non-ritual worship,
such as Tarawih, Eid al-Fitr, and going home to hometown. These activities are very risky if
carried out during the outbreak of Covid-19, as the spread of Covid-19 occurs within a short
distance from one person to another. This study aims to look at the Covid-19 movement in
Ramadhan for countries with the largest Muslim populations, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Oman, Qatar, Morocco, Bangladesh and India.
Model the movement of Covid-19 using the Singular Spectrum Analysis Model. The method
used is visual scanning and modelling using the Singular Spectrum Analysis Model. Daily
forecasting is done twice as much as the first forecast for the weekly MAPE (Mean Absolute
Percentage Error) from May 8th, 2020 to May 14th, while the second forecast (Data is not yet
known) for the weekly MAPE from May 15th, 2020 to Eid. Based on the results of the graphical
exploration, in general, the Muslim-majority countries rose in mining cases in Covid-19 during
the month of Ramadhan. The states that declined in the case of Covid-19 were Oman, Qatar and
Morocco. The Singular Spectrum Analysis Model with the Long Memory Time Series approach
is more accurate than the Alexandrov version of the Auto grouping Model. The overall results of
the MAPE. |
