| Abstrak/Abstract |
The Mutis–Timau Forest Complex, one of the remaining mountainous tropical forest areas in
Timor Island, eastern Indonesia that covers an area of 31,984 ha, tends to decrease gradually. Efforts to
secure mountain forest functions and counteract the negative impact of declining forest areas are often
constrained by data uncertainty on factors contributing to deforestation. For this reason, this
study attempts to develop models of deforestation and predict future deforestation in the Mutis–Timau
Forest Complex. We constructed models of deforestation that describe the relationship between
deforestation and factors contributing to deforestation using spatial statistical models. In this
model, we used the deforestation data for the 1987– 2017 period obtained from a previous study as
dependent variables and the potential causes of deforestation generated from Geographic Information
System spatial analysis as independent variables. Using the probability of deforestation derived from
the model, we predicted future deforestation under two different scenarios, namely, business-as-usual (as
the reference scenario) and reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation. Our findings
showed that a positive relationship exists between probability of deforestation, distance to the
settlement, and population density variables, whereas a negative relationship exists between likelihood of
deforestation, elevation, slope, distance to the road, distance to the savanna, and forest management unit
variables. During the 2017–2030 period, under the business-as-usual scenario, the Mutis–Timau Forest
Complex will lose 1327.65 ha in forest area with an annual deforestation rate of 0.54%. Meanwhile, under
the reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation scenario, the overall forest loss was
estimated to be 1237.11 ha with an annual deforestation rate of 0.50%. The predicted area of
avoided deforestation in 2017–2030 under the reducing emission from deforestation and forest
degradation scenario was 90.54 ha. Such data and information are important for the Mutis–Timau
Forest Complex authority in prioritizing actions for combating deforestation and designing appropriate
forest-related policies and supporting data for reducing emission from deforestation and forest
degradation programme or other incentive schemes in reducing deforestation. |
